Today has the possibility of being an active weather day. Not everyone will see rain or thunderstorms, but everyone in Eastern NM has the chance of seeing some severe weather. Forecast models from today and last night have changed dramatically in today's severe weather setup.
This morning the Storm Prediction Center in Norman, OK has highlighted most of Eastern NM and parts of the TX Panhandle for severe weather.
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| SPC 7:00 am outlook (21 May 2012) |
The Storm Prediction Center has also highlighted the area for Large Hail and Damaging winds to be the main threats but a few isolated tornadoes are not out of the question as the setup is ripe enough for tornado development, but the tornado threat is very, very minimal holding at about 2 percent.
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| 2% Tornado Probability issued by SPC in 1630z Outlook |
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| 15% of 1"+ Size hail issued in the SPC 1630z outlook. |
This morning we had a strong cloud deck form over the area, indicative of good amounts of moisture in the air. This morning dew points were in the 50's and 60's. This afternoon, the RAP model has forecast upper-air soundings for Tucumcari, NM has a very weak cap, and ample moisture through most of the atmosphere. 2000 J/KG of CAPE is forecast in Eastern NM by 02z with an EHI (Energy Helicity Index) of 2 to even 5 for parts of Curry and Quay Counties. All of these elements combined with with the forecast 50-60 degree dew points and clearing cloud deck set the stage for making severe weather possible.
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| 15z forecast sounding for Tucumcari, NM at 0z |
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| RAP EHI forecast at 0z taken at 15z |
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| RAP Cape Forecast at 0z taken at 15z |
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| Rap Dew Point Forecast at 0z taken at 15z |
Now, don't think this is a huge outbreak, chances are on the lower end of the scale. But even slight chances for severe weather raise a flag for some concern. Thunderstorm chances here in Portales sit at 20-40%. Given the environment that is in place or will set in place for this afternoon and evening, any storm that develops has the potential to become strong to severe. Again, large hail and damaging winds are the main treat with the severe storms that do develop in our area.
I will have a Video Update up later in the afternoon.
For any of the latest severe weather Watches, Warnings, and Advisories stay close to your NOAA Weather Radio, and other media outlets for the latest info.
